tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14297067.post115568736118248705..comments2023-07-18T03:08:21.050-07:00Comments on PanCrit.Org: Claim Definition in Prediction MarketsChris Hibberthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12235621011708498622noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14297067.post-1155838689323151352006-08-17T11:18:00.000-07:002006-08-17T11:18:00.000-07:00According to the rules that TradeSports seems to b...According to the rules that TradeSports seems to be following, they needed confirmation of the positive outcome in order to issue a "yes" ruling. If they can't get confirmation of the positive result, I expect them to reward the negative position at the expiration. <BR/><BR/>I don't think I'd say that I "favor" this outcome, but that's what I'd "expect" given the way they seem to interpret their claims. I'm not happy that they were trapped by their own wording into waiting for confirmation from the DOD which they couldn't get to their satisfaction. But I do think they were right to stick to the description they gave.Chris Hibberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12235621011708498622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14297067.post-1155827597620024762006-08-17T08:13:00.000-07:002006-08-17T08:13:00.000-07:00Hi Chris Hibbert,Thanks for this great post.You wr...Hi Chris Hibbert,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for this great post.<BR/><BR/>You write:<BR/><BR/>"The arguments that [TradeSports / InTrade] needed to confirm that the missiles weren't fired or didn't land in international waters don't seem reasonable to me."<BR/><BR/>Would you mind elaborating? Does this mean that you'd favor a expiry to 100? (I asked somebody, and he said "no", so there's something I don't get right now.)<BR/><BR/>Thanks in advance for your clarification.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com