Tuesday, September 26, 2006

Tools I use: Nostalgy for Thunderbird

I haven't posted anything in this category for a while, but I recently found an extension for Thunderbird that has really made my day. I've noticed for a while that re-filing messages is too mouse-oriented for my tastes, and have hoped to find a solution.

You see, I'm a keyboard-oriented person. I use emacs as my preferred text editor, but even when I use Word I learn all the keyboard shortcuts, and customize the interface to add more shortcuts so I can do as much as possible from the keyboard. I know the keyboard shortcuts for most of the programs I use regularly, and have little trouble keeping them straight between different programs.

I often say "Bill (meaning Microsoft) thinks people feel productive when they're moving the mouse, and he wants you to feel productive, so he makes sure you have to move the mouse to get anything done." The Mac has unfortunately followed in this direction more and more recently with many monologue boxes (my term for a confirmation window with only one choice.) And too many of the dialogue boxes won't let you tab to a different choice: you have to move the mouse. I thought this went against usability guidelines, but it increases nonetheless.

So anyway, back to Thunderbird. In order to refile messages in off-the-shelf Thunderbird, you can either navigate menus manually, or drag the message to a folder. If you have a large folder tree (as I do), this can be a serious hassle. I haven't figured out how to invoke the menu tree from the keyboard, since the menu is hierarchical, and AFAICT you can only add a shortcut for a leaf of the menu hierarchy. That means invoking the menubar (minimum 5 keystrokes or a mouse movement) or a context menu (mouse movement) then navigating the menus (mouse movement at each level, sub-menus might be on the right or the left; keyboard requires moving up and down with arrow keys, since individual menu items don't have live shortcuts).

Steve Putz's mail reader, Babar (only available in the version of Smalltalk that was used at PARC; the user community never exceeded 50) had a short menu of the most recently used folders that you could reach quickly for filing or visiting. The other alternative is a quick textual search from the keyboard. The Emacs front-end for mh (which I still use regularly to peruse my filtered junk mail) supports this.

Now there's a new (first release was in May) extension for Thunderbird that supports filing from the keyboard. It's called Nostalgy, and it was written by Alain Frisch. Hit a key: "s" (for save?) to refile, "c" to copy, and you can then type a regular expression while the applicable list is narrowed down as you type. And the most recently used folder is immediately accessible by capitalizing the command key, so filing to the same folder you just used (which is quite common) is just "S".

It's wonderful!

Filed in:

Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Continuous Outcomes: Bands, Ladders, and Scaled Claims

The most common prediction markets we see are binary markets; those with two possible outcomes. Will Candidate X be reelected, which team will win a sports contest, will so-and-so be convicted, etc. The next most common is determining the outcome from a list of possibilities known before the event: winner of a multi-candidate election, the World Cup, or the Super Bowl. This post talks about another kind of market: predicting the value of a continuous variable, as in how much snowfall will NYC get this winter, how many cases of flu will there be in Iowa next month, the level of a company's sales, the value of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average. Even "When will social security reform be passed?" and "When will the new product be shipped?" can be expressed in this format: the date of occurrence is the predicted value.

There are three common approaches to predicting continuous variables. I call them price bands, price ladders, and scaled claims. In the price ladder representation, a series of securities is offered, and each one is phrased as "the value will be lower than X". A series of securities with different values of X can cover all the possibilities (as long as the sequence is capped by a security that includes all other values). Price bands phrase each security's claim as "the value will be between X and Y". (These need to be capped on both ends by "W or less" and "Z or more".) Scaled claims represent the same kind of question with a single security that pays off a variable amount determined by the outcome.

Bands and Ladders are duals: any bet that can be made in one system can be made in the other with a structured bet. If you believe that the outcome will be between X and Y, and the market offers only ladders, then you buy X and sell Y. If the market offers bands and you want to bet that the price will be above (or below) some value, you buy all the securities at or above that value. Scaled claims don't offer these options.

The question to answer in designing these markets is which approach is more convenient to the trader, and more amenable to analysis. (If the output of these markets are predictions, then we want usable predictions.) In order to offer markets in continuous outcomes, the market operator has to decide what a plausible range of outcomes would be, and decide what possibilities are reasonable choices. That helps determine how many bands and how wide they should be. If the consensus view expects a value to be between 1200 and 1500, someone offering bands or ladders wants to set things up so there are choices ranging from 1100 to 1600, with some choices within the consensus forecast. With variable payouts, if the value is going to change very much, the outcomes of interest should take up as much of the probability space as possible. On FX (where design of the securities is a subject of public discussion) there is often a discussion about what outcomes are most likely in order to choose a wide active range that the price will move around in. If the market operator can't tell where the contentious issue will lie, they are forced to choose between many securities, most of which will be uninterested, or a few wide bands, and risk that there's little disagreement on the outcome (to the resolution the claim provides) for much of the claim's lifetime.

It isn't necessary that the bands be of equal sizes. When the magnitude of the outcome is highly variable, a log scale can be used. On FX, log scales are often considered for death tolls for epidemics or other disasters, though I couldn't find any claims that ended up using it. It can also make sense to have narrower bands in the region of the most likely outcomes, and wider bands further away. Robin Hanson suggested another approach: split up the bands as the consensus changes. In order to be fair to the traders, the securities should cover all the possibilities (i.e. no gaps or excluded ranges; most easily done by having the lowest range be "< X" and the highest be "> Y".) If one band has a high percentage of the interest, split it into sub-ranges, and give each investor who owns shares in the range being split a corresponding number of each of the new shares. Reverse splits can't be done cleanly, so it's important to not split too soon or too often if the UI doesn't handle lots of claims well.

Another weakness of scaled claims is that the market only produces one price, so you can't tell when investors' opinions are bimodal. For instance, if many people think that there will either be a huge epidemic or a low effect, with medium epidemics being unlikely.

The market will be more liquid if people can express their view without having to buy multiple securities to cover their expectations. So to some extent the best choice depends on whether people are more likely to think they know the most likely value, or more likely to think "the value will be at least X" (or "at most X"). I think people usually find it easier to decide on a maximum or minimum value than a most-likely range. On the other hand, price bands make it easier to understand the market's forecast. The calculations of implied prices based on the prices of puts and calls in the stock market are complicated, and deriving a prediction from prices of laddered securities should be just as involved.

If the securities are built as price bands, the approach to improving liquidity in N-way markets that I described in a previous article would be applicable. The same trick doesn't apply to laddered securities, since those assets can't be expressed as linear combinations of one another.

TradeSports had a market in snowfall in New York City last winter, and many of their financial bets are for continuous variables. They also offered their bets on capture of Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden as well as the date of passage of Social Security reform as a series of deadline dates, which have the same semantics as ladders.

FX has scaled claims, and this form is also used by IEM for judging the popular vote (as opposed to the winner-take-all market based on the elector college outcome.) IEM's local flu markets (currently inactive?) were done as price bands as well (different colors represented different observed rates of flu.)

HedgeStreet is currently using overlapping bands in some of their markets (50-60, 55-65, 60-70). This gives more choices to the customer, but that means it splits the liquidity. Doubling the number of outcomes investors have to pay attention to cuts liquidity approximately in half. I can't think of an advantage of this choice. HedgeStreet also has price bands that aren't capped, so it's possible that none of the bands will include the outcome.

Inkling's and CrowdIQ's markets ask you to pick a single winner from a list. These can be used for either price bands or ladders, and some markets there are being done that way.

NewsFutures isn't currently offering any contracts on continuous variables that I could find. I don't remember any in the past either. HSX's stocks are open-ended continuous payout securities. Yahoo! Tech Buzz has discreet outcomes with payouts proportinal to the search measure.

Previous articles in this series:

Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Kim Stanley Robinson: Forty Signs of Rain

Kim Stanley Robinson's Forty Signs of Rain is a lightweight eco-thriller. The principal characters are climate scientists working in Washington DC and San Diego while the climate gradually worsens. The time-scales are short enough that it isn't plausible to treat the increasing storms as more than anecdotes, but they're big enough (the mall in Washington DC floods because of a combination of high tides and storms feeding both watersheds that drain into the Potomac) to be striking to most readers. The kind of striking image that leads people to reasoning from fictional evidence.

But the story is engaging, the characters are plausible examples of the stereotypical focused scientist. Many loose ends are left hanging to the sequels. The only science fiction seems to be the speed of onset of global warming. There are several scenes involving start-up biotech firms, and the politics of recruiting. There's also a significant amount of time spent in Washington, both in giving grants to scientists, and lobbying congress to do something about the state of the world. It all rings reasonably true, and will be familiar to anyone who has worked in technology, academy, or government.

One of the characters is an ex-rock climber. I didn't find anything discordant in any of the climbing scenes. I've even been involved in rappelling into a building atrium (not solo, though) and found that description plausible as well.

Fun, but not deep. The whole purpose seemed to be to show us a powerful vignette of the effects of global warming, and I'll admit that the image is powerful.

Sunday, September 17, 2006

Jaffe & Lerner: Innovation and Its Discontents

Innovation and Its Discontents by Adam Jaffe and Josh Lerner is a level-headed appraisal of the problems with the current patent system in the US, accompanied by some common sense proposals to address them. In discussions of problems with the patent system, I have said for a while that the problem is that the patent office is issuing bad patents, and argued that people should be careful not to conclude from the effects of these bad patents that patents are a bad idea.

Jaffe & Lerner seem to agree with this point of view. They describe the problems of the patent office as being poor incentive structure in the patent office, compounded by procedural rules in the patent courts that presume that patents are being issued competently. The budget of the patent office has been cut, and the incentives on individual patent clerks push toward easy approval; there is no cost to issuing too many patents, and a high cost to spending extra time reviewing. Once patents get to the patent court, the rules are stacked in favor of the patent holder by a presumption that the patent review was performed competently. All this combines to produce a glut of lousy patents that are hard to attack.

Patents that are easy to earn and hard to dislodge can be a serious drain on innovation, because inventors and innovators necessarily re-use previous ideas in developing new solutions. When only major innovations gain the right to exclude rivals, the incentives ought to encourage inventors to describe their breakthroughs so others can exploit them after the exclusion period, and minor advances don't turn into roadblocks.

One somewhat surprising point that Jaffe and Lerner make quite clearly is that the patent system doesn't have to screen out worthless patents perfectly. As long as it's possible to overturn undeserved patents, allowing too many patents wouldn't be a problem, since most patents don't lead to commercial products. If it's not too expensive to defend against a claim of infringement based on an weak patent, then the system doesn't have to prevent all bad patents. If we can't remove the strong presumption the current system makes in favor of patent holders, the only resolutions would be to look for reforms that prevent bad patents from being issued or to advocate the complete repeal of patents.

Their proposals are much more conservative than this, and if they are adopted relatively intact, they seem to have a fair chance of improving the situation greatly.

Their proposal has three parts: 1) make it possible for people to provide relevant prior art before a patent is granted without precluding the prior art from being used later in court (the current system assumes that prior art that the patent office knew about before granting a patent was correctly considered by the examiner, and so it is excluded from later use in court challenges.) 2) provide escalating levels of review and challenge so that weak patents can be challenged cheaply, and important patents get an appropriate level of review without too strong a presumption about the outcome, and 3) drop the option of jury trials, and move to a system of judges and expert special masters. (Juries seldom understand the issues in a patent case, and the presumptions they are instructed to make lead them to decide for the patent holder whenever they are confused.)

Another argument that the authors make persuasively is that it would be a mistake to advocate different rules for patents in different fields. First, this would have the effect of pushing patenters to couch their patents in whatever terms give them the most advantage. The authors show that this has gone on with respect to the different treatment that business method, pharmaceutical, and software patents get currently. Secondly, if the rules are variable across fields, every lobby will have an incentive to make a case that they are special in some way. We'll all be better off if we can get simple across-the-board reforms implemented that limit patents to real breakthroughs, and make it possible for innovators to proceed without being obstructed by patents on minutiae well-known techniques.

I have no idea what the chances are that these reforms might be considered in the current political environment. It appears that lawyers, as a coalition, like the current system, but it's not clear why any innovative company would prefer it, even if they have a large patent portfolio at present.

Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Zocalo 2006.5 released: Installer for Windows

I've released a new version of the Zocalo Prediction Market Toolkit. Zocalo now has an installer for Windows. This should make it simple to install the prediction market version on Windows platforms. If you've already installed, there's nothing else worth upgrading for, but if you were waiting for a simpler install on Windows, this is it.

The 2006.3 release was the first to support deployment on Windows, but it was packaged as a .zip file with manual instructions. I got a couple of requests for a windows-style installer, so I figured out how to build one using the open source NSIS package. It took me a week and a half to get everything right, but I think the result is worth it. It's a professional looking installer that prompts for some configuration parameters, and verifies their values before inserting them in a configuration file.

I didn't make an installer for the experiment version. If you've been holding off installing that because of a perception that installing on Windows from a zip file was going to be too hard, let me know. I'd guess that building another installer will take a few days now that I've figured out all the quirks of NSIS that mattered for Zocalo.

Saturday, September 09, 2006

Michael Lockwood: The Labyrinth of Time

Michael Lockwood's The Labyrinth of Time starts out as an explanation of the physical structure of time, but morphs gradually into a treatise on anything Lockwood is interested in that can be remotely connected to time. Lockwood's interests include time travel, quantum electrodynamics, black holes, and quantum gravity. His exposition is better in areas that are clearly physics, and worse on things like the meaning of causality and time travel.

Lockwood starts by presenting two basic ways of thinking about time. In one, the past is fixed and the future is mere possibility turning into the unchanging past as we move past it. The other says that both the past and future are fixed, our point of view is called the present, and as time passes, we get to watch a narrow slice of the fixed 4-dimensional reality pass by. Most of physics works equally well whichever direction time moves, and Lockwood wants to explain why the past and the future seem different to us. We remember the past and not the future. In the end, this paradox wasn't cleared up for me.

Lockwood does present some good new visualizations that clarify space-time and various "problems" with reasoning about the speed of light. His presentation of simultaneity, using a moving train car with two different observers was remarkably clear, as was his explanation of the twin paradox using two unaccelerated paths through a hypothetical cylindrically connected space-time. The presentations of the physics of black holes (and how to use a black hole as a power source) were also good, but I didn't get much out of his approaches to string theory or quantum gravity. I think part of it was that the presentations were more hurried nearer the end of the book; he did better when he took the time to explain the basic concepts clearly first before getting to the advanced ideas. I suspect that except for people steeped in these later areas, his explanations will come up short.

Lockwood kept coming back to time travel paradoxes, without ultimately resolving the issue. Apparently the standard interpretations of physics say that paradoxes aren't allowed, and the open question is what mechanism the universe will use to prevent them. Apparently, if you don't believe in many worlds, you are forced to believe that there is only one past and a single future that will eventualy unfold. This doesn't allow causal loops (even though the fundamental equations seems to countenance them) much less time travellers acting in the past to prevent their known futures from (re-)occuring. I think the underlying theories force you to accept a single past even if you don't go for many worlds. So, whether the past becomes fixed as we journey with the moving present, or our viewpoint moves across an already fixed landscape, you're stuck.

I don't see how these arguments would convince anyone that the universe would act to prevent closed time-like loops. Until we see events conspiring to prevent causal loops, I'm happier reconciling the claim that physics allows time travel by accepting that space-time may be a causal spiral than expecting the universe to allow time travel while conspiring subtly to prevent someone from killing her grandfather. But as Norm Hardy pointed out, some of the phyisicists who seem to understand the equations say that the equations force you to believe in an invariant past. And in the end, Einstein's ability to predict, based on the equations, a lot of what we now believe and that experiments have confirmed, says that that's a strong argument.

Peter McCluskey also wrote about Labyrinth.

Filed in:

Thursday, August 31, 2006

Dynamically Transferrable Proxies

There has been a lot of theoretical work on voting, starting with Kenneth Arrow's proof that it's impossible for any consistent vote counting procedure to satisfy a short list of desirable criteria he provided. Over the years since then, people have proposed a variety of counting procedures that make different trade-offs among them. The LFS uses a variant of the preferential voting system to allow members to rank candidates because nominees must get more votes than NOTA to win. This approach means we don't have run-off votes if there isn't a single winner in the first round of voting.

Voting isn't a great way to solve problems, but it may be the best we have in situations in which people want to work together and choices must be made about how to proceed. This is often the case when people want to cooperate (volunteer groups, owner's associations, or standards organizations). There are some actions that work best when performed in concert, so people often agree to follow a group's decisions. (With some limits on what the group's purview is, or the right to withdraw if the decisions are unacceptable.)

Wikipedia has several articles on different vote counting procedures: Borda count, Condorcet (and variants) and several others. Each system makes a different trade-off, some ensuring that the winner is hated by the fewest electors, other that the winner is preferred by more electors over each opponent, preferred more strongly by the most voters, and so on.

The other aspect of electoral systems is that for many purposes, we prefer to elect representatives who will spend more time discussing issues in detail and make a proposal for all to consider or decide among the alternatives themselves. Most voters, most of the time aren't willing to pay much attention. (Economists have shown why it is irrational for voters to become informed if the electorate is large, and why narrow interests control the issues that pertain to them.) In organizations at all scales most of the time, most people have better things to do with their time and attention.

There are as many ways to select representative panels as to count votes. Representatives in the US Congress are chosen by a majority in a single district. Senators are chosen in the same way, even though there are two of them. The problem that PR addresses is that if 51% of the people in each district vote Orange, and 49% vote Purple, then no Purple Legislators are elected. PR counts votes over larger districts, and selects winners in proportion to the votes cast. In elections for corporate Boards of Directors, any voter can usually cast all their votes for a single candidate, ensuring that someone who owns 20% of the shares can select a Director (one of five seats) even if everyone else votes for the same slate of 5. (If it were congressional seats, each representative for the larger group would win with 80% of the vote.) Many European countries' parliaments are selected using Proportional Representation (PR), so the representatives are chosen in proportion to the sum of the electors' votes. (Notice that PR also defuses the pressures for gerrymandering.)

The choice of vote counting mechanism and how multiple representatives are chosen has a large effect on the make-up of the elected body. The American approach naturally limits the power of third parties. Since the only people who get elected have more than 50% of the votes, parties that can't at least occasionally surpass that mark won't ever hold office. That naturally leads to a two party system. If any party has significantly less than half the electorate as its base, then it can increase its chances of being elected by joining with another group. If a faction isn't within the margin of power of its party, the party can ignore their demands without hurting their chance of being elected, so the faction can increase its influence by threatening to join a different party that will pay more attention to their voter's wishes. Sometimes, a faction can't credibly threaten to bolt the party (because of historical interactions with the other party, for instance) and so their influence will wane.

In PR systems, there is often a floor: parties with less than 5% of the vote (for example) don't get a seat. Any faction larger than that can get a seat, and be part of the decision-making body. As long as the voting rules in the representative body allow their voice to be effective, that's enough to keep the factions alive, and ensure that they continue to distinguish their positions from their rivals.

All of this has an effect on how interest groups organize and persist. Most of the time, single-issue groups can't get elected to general legislatures. Most voters have too many distinct interests to allow one interest to represent them. Even with the lower floor in PR systems, groups representing e.g. labor have to take a position on most of the major issues, and hope to attract voters who match their position on more issues than their rivals. In the American system, single-issue groups find they have to be allied with one major party or the other (think of the NRA, the NAACP, either side of the abortion question, labor, etc.).

Since I'm a libertarian, I'm always a minority and my vote is of no interest to the major parties. For a long time, the Libertarian Party had a stated goal of being the margin of victory between the major party candidates in as many local elections as possible. The theory was that at that point, the weaker party would have a reason to try to co-opt some platform planks in order to gain converts. Every time they do that, that party would be moving closer to libertarian positions, which is useful given that libertarians aren't going to be elected in numbers anytime soon.

Years ago, I had an idea for a different way of organizing representative bodies that would fundamentally change the dynamic. It ought to energize all the minor factions, and could make it possible for representative bodies to reach decisions that matched the voters' views much more often by ensuring that elected representatives don't have to be a compromise between positions on a large number of issues. There is, of course, an argument to be made that satisfying more voters more often will lead to the government constantly robbing different minorities in order to pay off constantly changing majorities. I think the right response to that is to try the mechanism out in voluntary organizations rather than governmental bodies.

I call my proposal "dynamically transferable proxies". The idea is that representatives aren't elected, they merely carry proxies from voters who currently back them. A representative's vote in the forum is the sum of the individuals they currently represent. Voters can choose new representatives as often as they want. A proxy-holder can transitively assign all the proxies they currently hold to any other representative. Voters and assigners can revoke their assignments anytime they like as well.

In order to have productive negotiations about what alternatives to consider, those currently representing the largest constituencies should have a place (virtual, if necessary) to talk. I think it makes sense to choose a number (20, 100, 435) and enable that number of the largest proxy-holders to convene. If they agree on an agenda, and set particular times to discuss specific issues, the voters can dynamically switch their proxies to people or groups that best represent them on that topic. If gun control is on the agenda, then the NRA will have some number of proxies from their dedicated members, and Handgun Control, Inc. will have proxies from their constituents. More importantly, everyone else, somewhere in the middle, will assign their proxy to someone who can articulate a reasonable compromise, or someone who can plausibly claim to be willing to listen to arguments. Major parties can attempt to form coalitions, but voters can defect, one issue at a time.

In this context, some people would aim to be representatives, but many more would find a niche as proxy-holders who would notify constituents when an upcoming agenda item affects them, and commit to assign the proxy to someone who would represent their views effectively. (That's the right role for the NRA and the right-to-life/choice groups. They don't need to be present on the floor 99% of the time, but when contentious issues are being discussed, it would be better to separate representatives of extremists from representatives of moderates.)

I think this approach could have a moderating effect on politics. But I don't think there's any point in trying to promote it as a replacement for currently existing governments. OTOH, connectivity has increased enough that it might make sense for some groups. Some of the criteria for a good fit include: highly-connected constituency, broad range of issues to make decisions about, and a need to make collective decisions. I think it would work as well for a voluntary group as for a political subdivision.

I have been an officer of a couple of volunteer organizations, but the range of issues hasn't been wide enough for this kind of process to be worthwhile. I've occasionally fantasized that this would be the right way to run a large colony once we start exploring space or a starship. What organizations would it make sense for? Does 2nd Life have a representative governing body?

Thanks to Dan Reeves (currently at Yahoo) for encouraging me to write this idea up.

Wednesday, August 30, 2006

Insider Trading

Stephen Roman responds to a post from Professor Bainbridge, which was a response to Wolfers and Zitzewitz' question about Manipulation in their 5 Open Questions About Prediction Markets paper. That paper didn't bring up insider trading; the manipulation section focused on attempts to change outcomes by changing prices. Bainbridge's approach is to ask how bad insider trading could be since firms don't seem to have prohibited it on their own.

Roman tries to address the question of whether there is ever a reason for a prediction market exchange to ban insider trading. His answer is that it's never in the interest of the exchange or any of the participants to refuse admission to anyone. This argument leaves out an important part of the argument, though. The reason people keep asking the question is that they thought they learned from stock markets that it was important to prevent it. If stock markets are right to ban insiders from trading, what's the difference, and what does that imply for prediction markets?

The reason insiders are banned from trading on stock markets isn't because of their effect on prices or information, it's because having something to gain from the company's losses might give them reason to act against the company's interests. (In the insurance field, this is called "moral hazard".) The reason the major stock markets publicize and help enforce the ban is because the companies are their customers, and the exchanges and the companies share an interest in making the market appear to be free of that influence.

Another rationale for the ban is to prevent insiders from profiting from early access to information, but I think that is a secondary concern. If the moral hazard created by allowing people to trade against their employer's interests weren't present, it would be much harder to figure out where to draw the line to say who has unfair early access to information.

In the absence of such rules from the exchange, it would still make sense for companies to make and enforce explicit rules prohibiting employees from taking positions against the interests of companies when they have privileged access to information. This might clearly apply to some specific prediction market contracts, but companies would probably find it more effective to make a general rule than to try to maintain an explicit list of forbidden contracts or topics.

In the end, I agree with Stephen that prediction markets shouldn't ban insider trading. But it's not because all insider trading is benign, it's because insider trading is a net benefit in these markets, and the conflicts of interest can be handled closer to where they occur. And the answer to Bainbridge's question is that companies haven't done anything voluntarily because the stock exchanges already prohibit it. I think you have to look somewhere other than publicly traded companies to find examples of voluntary enforcement.

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

2006 Prometheus Awards

The Libertarian Futurist Society announced this years' winners of the Prometheus Awards on Friday at the 64th World Science Fiction Convention.

Ken MacLeod won this year's Prometheus award for Best Novel for Learning the World.

Alan Moore and David Lloyd won the Award for Best Classic Fiction (the Hall of Fame award) for their graphic novel "V for Vendetta". David Lloyd accepted the award.

Joss Whedon's film, Serenity, won a Special Prometheus Award. The award's dedication read "To 'Serenity', writer-director Joss Whedon's fun-loving and pro-freedom movie that portrays resistance fighters struggling against oppressive collectivism (based on the unfortunately short-lived TV series Firefly)." Morena Baccarin, who plays Inara in the series, accepted the award.

Wally Conger had the details on who accepted the awards; Anders Monsen linked to Wally's post.

Saturday, August 26, 2006

John Varley: Red Lightning

John Varley's Red Lightning is a pretty lightweight example of the genre of revolution on the martian colony. Actually, the revolution is almost an afterthought, and the rest is a simple juvenile adventure. Our hero is Ray Garcia-Strickland, a teenager growing up on Mars, the son of two of the pioneers, and close confidant of Jubal Broussard, the eccentric inventor who came up with the device that makes space travel affordable. The first half of the story is an adventure through tsunami-torn Florida after an unidentified, near-light-speed object tears through the Gulf of Mexico. In the second half, Mars is repeatedly invaded and subdued by unidentified mercenaries who are hoping to capture Jubal and gain control of his inventions. In the end, Ray, Jubal, and friends stand off the mercenaries, and declare independence for Mars based on their control of Jubal's inventions, which no one else has been able to replicate.

I found the story to be weak, contrived, and derivative. The technology is magic, and the fact that it's all-powerful (provides cheap, plentiful energy, and it can make Vingean bobbles, too!) and requires Jubal's personal touch to manufacture renders it an unbeatable tool. The bad guys are one-dimensional: faceless, incompetent in low-gee combat, ruthless torturers, and ordered around by unseen forces.

Red Lightning has already been nominated for next year's Prometheus award. Varley's a good writer: his The Golden Globe won a Prometheus award, and the story "The Persistence of Vision" won Hugo and Nebula Awards. The story has enough anti-authoritarian elements to qualify as (weakly) libertarian: the government does a lousy job managing after the tsunami (Varley swears in an afterword that that part was conceived before the December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the Katrina devastation), and the mercenaries are either backed or tolerated by governments on Earth. The story is a fun read; there's just no depth to it. The two halves of the book are unrelated stories; the trip to Florida gives us a chance to see the devastation, but we see mere snippets of heroism and villainy; the same is true of Mars under occupation. The declaration of Martian independence at the end is managed without the awareness or help of the residents of Mars, even though they have plenty of grievance after their occupation by the anonymous mercenaries.

Filed in:

Friday, August 25, 2006

Elizabeth Moon: Engaging the Enemy

Elizabeth Moon's Engaging the Enemy has been recommended for the Prometheus award, as a follow-up to her previous Marque and Reprisal. I think Marque had a little more to recommend it as libertarian, but both are fine space adventure yarns.

The heroine is Kylara Vatta, a young woman, and offspring of an established interstellar trading clan. Ky dropped out of space academy after a scandal, and was just trying to get started on a career as a merchant when most of her clan was killed in a coordinated series of raids by parties unknown. In the previous book, Ky received a letter of Marque from one planetary government, authorizing her to attack and capture pirate ships. This stretched the bounds of what she'd been brought up to believe was honorable behavior, but these were extraordinary circumstances. Happening upon an outcast from the Vatta clan who appears to be operating as a pirate, Ky captured his ship and killed the pirate. Now, in Engaging the Enemy, she has an armed ship to use to try to chase down those responsible for her family's deaths, and start rebuilding the trading empire.

The rebuilding is mostly assigned to her cousin, but organizing the independent privateers into a fighting force that can take on the apparently organized pirates and free the shipping lanes for peaceful commerce is left to Ky. She's young enough that once she's gathered a group of independent captains together, someone else asserts seniority and takes command. But we can tell from the beginning that Ky will make a better commander, and she wisely decides to work on her cooperation skills while waiting to see if her battlefield experience and tactical smarts are evident to the others. It doesn't take long for her qualifications to appear.

The subplots and side-stories provide background about the family and build up some characters who may turn out to have important roles later, but the heart of this book is Ky's political maneuvering and the actual space battles. There's a touch of right to self-defense, but it's layered with revenge motive, so it's hard to call that a libertarian thread. The battles and intrigue are well-written, but there's not much of deep substance here. It's a solid novel, with interesting characters and fast-paced action. There's no deeper meaning or overarching significance to events, so if you're satisfied with simple interstellar adventure stories, you'll find this is a good read.

Filed in:

Monday, August 21, 2006

George R. R. Martin: A Storm of Swords

George R. R. Martin's A Storm of Swords is the third book in his series A Song of Ice and Fire. I've been enjoying this series for the character development, the span of events, and the complexity of the action. This installment is almost 1200 pages long, but that wasn't a detriment. Martin is telling a story that fills the pages and continues to hold my interest.

The series covers seven interlocking medieval kingdoms that have recently lost the one that brought relative peace by conquering and uniting them all. Every house is jockeying for power, to hold the realm together, to hold onto a kingdom, or to hold a stable enough seat to start over. Each house's character is driven by the position they hold and the relationships they've relied on. The power brokers in each house are usually the ones who embody the family character, leaving lesser characters to have widely varying motives and approaches.

In the previous books, we have met quite a few characters, but events seem to turn around the house of Stark, the widow of Lord Eddard Stark and their seven children, (now ranging in age from Rickon, who is 4, to Rob, who is old enough to rule). This time around, the Starks are the focus of the Storm in the title. Several Starks fall, but even after they seem to have died or gotten lost, they continue to play a role.

Early in the book, Martin's round-robin telling of events from a different point of view in each chapter had me mentally reviewing the status of each of the Starks (and their major opponents) each time I put the book down. Even though it felt like there were nearly a dozen characters I wanted to track, I didn't have any trouble remembering where each one was, and what was about to happen to them. These characters struggle, make mistakes, sometimes succeed and often fail. There are a few characters who are purely ignoble, and others who are treated as rats by others but who we see, behind the scenes, striving to do what's right for their kingdoms or their fellows.

The biggest bloodbath in the book comes as a complete surprise, even though Martin ensured that we and the characters had enough indications that something was coming that I should have guessed, and they should have been prepared.

If you don't mind long convoluted plots when they're well told, I strongly recommend the series. There's a bit of fantasy (magic and dragons), but Martin keeps it under control. There's little that's libertarian here, but there's plenty to admire and despise about people's characters. They don't always get their just desserts quickly, but usually they do eventually. I've found the series to be an engrossing read.

Filed in: